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Every month we publish a market-health brief and refresh a live dashboard, built around the questions a regulator asks: is the market growing, is competition healthy, are prices accessible, and is participation turning into revenue for equity-designated operators.
$62.8MOctober market+4.5% on September
+18.6%Revenue since Januaryon 33.3% more units
308Dispensaries selling$204.0K each in October
162Equity-designatedof 324 retailers on file
Insightful
Market structure, prices and equity outcomes, side by side every month.
Actionable
Every finding names a category, a measure or a group of operators.
Verified
Every figure is computed from source data and re-checked before release. The October brief passed 14 of 14 checks.
How to use this pack
- October findings gives each analysis, the decision it supports and its October reading.
- Equity data shows where every designation comes from and how door and revenue shares are calculated.
- Reading the dashboard maps each question to the tab that answers it.
- Why numbers differ explains, ahead of time, the places where two correct figures will not match.
- Brand owners, Services and Roadmap cover what else the same data can do, and what would help most from the Commission.
October findings
Each row is one analysis from the brief, the question it answers for the Commission, and what October showed.
| Analysis | Decision it supports | October 2026 reading |
|---|---|---|
| Growth split into price and volume | Is a revenue move about demand or price? | Revenue +4.5% and units +5.5% on September; +18.6% since January on 33.3% more units |
| Concentration by category | Is competition healthy in every category? | Flower concentration score (HHI) 252.3, rated Low (under 1,500); categories with 97.7% of revenue rated Low |
| New entrants and brand counts | Is the market open to new businesses? | Brand counts up in 7 of 8 categories; dispensaries 264 to 308 since January |
| Equity participation and conversion | Where will support do the most good? | Diversely owned 45.7% of doors, 39.0% of revenue; Social Equity 6.4%, 3.8% |
| Revenue per storefront | Is store growth keeping pace with demand? | $204.0K per reporting dispensary |
| Legal price trend | Are legal prices becoming more accessible? | Flower average price $35.38, down 9.2% since January; every core category eased |
| Data quality checks | Can every published figure be trusted? | 14 of 14 automated checks passed before release |
The October story in one line
The market grew on volume while prices eased: more units at lower average prices, spread across more stores, with competition low in every major category.
Equity data: where it comes from and how it is used
The equity findings combine State of New Jersey records, which say which dispensaries hold a designation, with LitAlerts market sales estimates, which say how much each dispensary sells.
| Designation | Share of doors | Share of revenue | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Zone | 31.6% | 28.3% | −3.2 pts |
| Diversely owned | 45.7% | 39.0% | −6.7 pts |
| Social Equity | 6.4% | 3.8% | −2.6 pts |
A negative gap means the group’s stores earn a smaller share of revenue than their share of storefronts. Doors measure participation; revenue measures conversion.
| Data | Source | How it is obtained |
|---|---|---|
| Social Equity | Commission license recommendation memos | Public meeting documents, April 2023 to October 2025. Each memo lists the priority-review group of every approved applicant; group 1 is Social Equity. |
| Diversely owned | NJSAVI certifications (NJ Treasury) and Commission memos | Treasury’s certification database for minority-, women-, veteran- and disabled-veteran-owned businesses. |
| Impact Zone | The Commission’s list of 87 Impact Zone municipalities | A store is flagged when its address is in one of those towns; shared town names are resolved by ZIP code. |
| Sales | LitAlerts market sales estimates | Loaded monthly. Equity shares use total dispensary retail revenue, $128.2M in October. |
How the records are kept
- Stored with their source. Each designated store carries its citation, shown on the dashboard’s Social Equity tab.
- Graded for strength. Gold: a Social Equity review group in a Commission memo, or a memo confirmed by a Treasury certificate (61 stores). High: one record, matched by name and confirmed by town (101 stores).
- Never inferred. No designation is guessed from a name, a location or an Impact Zone.
- Refreshed quarterly, most recently on October 19, 2026: 22 Social Equity and 146 diversely owned dispensaries.
How the shares are calculated
Among active sellers matched to the records: 282 of 308 in October, 97.43% of dispensary revenue.
door share = designated active sellers ÷ matched active sellers
revenue share = designated revenue ÷ matched revenue
gap = revenue share − door share
One matching routine builds the figures and checks them, so the report and its check cannot drift apart. About 300 figures in the January–September edition were independently audited.
Reading the dashboard
The dashboard is the live version of the brief: the same data, computed the same way. The brief is one month’s fixed reading; the dashboard holds the whole series and updates each month.
Period
Sets the window every tab reports on: a month, a pair of months, a quarter or the full range. It opens on the latest complete month, October 2026.
View as
Already set to CRC / Regulator. It marks the four tabs built for the Commission: Executive Summary, Market Concentration, Social Equity and NJ Map. Every other tab stays open.
| The Commission’s question | Open this tab | What you are reading |
|---|---|---|
| Is the market growing, and is it demand or price? | Executive Summary, then Market Overview | Monthly revenue and units side by side. Revenue up on units up is demand; revenue up on flat units is price. |
| Is any operator becoming dominant? | Market Concentration | HHI and top-five share for every category, with the multi-state and independent split. Measured on brand names, so one parent company can appear as several brands. |
| Is the market still open to newcomers? | Brand Diversity | How many brands sold in each category, month by month. |
| Are legal prices coming within reach? | Price Accessibility | Average price per unit by category, month by month, with the direction of travel. |
| Are equity licensees converting participation into revenue? | Social Equity | Every designated store that sold in the period, with its revenue and the State record behind its designation. In October: 18 Social Equity and 129 diversely owned stores, $26.5M of revenue. The door and revenue shares are on tab 3 of this pack and in section 6 of the brief. |
| Where are the stores? | NJ Map, then Dispensary Scorecard | Every active storefront placed on the map and ranked by revenue, with its category mix against the state average. |
| How is one brand or one store doing? | Brand Report, Brand Intel, Competitive Intel | A brand’s reach and pricing against the market, or a store against its neighbors within 10 miles. |
Three habits that keep the numbers straight
- Set the period before you read a number. Every tab reports the header’s window.
- Read revenue and units together. When they move apart, the gap is the finding. In October revenue rose 4.5% and units 5.5%: growth on volume, with prices easing.
- Compare within one edition. A closed month can shift slightly in a later pull (see “Why numbers differ”).
The measures you will meet
- HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index): one score for how much of a category’s sales sit with a few brands. It runs from near 0, when sales are spread across many brands, to 10,000, when one brand sells everything. Under 1,500 is Low (healthy competition), 1,500 to 2,500 is Moderate, and over 2,500 is High (a few brands dominate). These are the federal antitrust bands, and the dashboard prints the label beside every score. October Flower scored 252: no brand comes close to dominating.
- Top-five share: the share of a category’s units sold by its five largest brands.
- Month over month: one month is noise; a direction held for three months is a trend.
- Average price per unit: moves when shoppers change formats, not only when shelf prices change.
- Mix score (0–100): how closely a store’s category split tracks the state average. A measure of breadth, not quality.
Every formula and source field is defined on the dashboard’s Metrics Guide tab.
Why numbers differ, explained ahead of time
These are the places where two correct figures will not match. Each has a known reason.
Our sales totals and the Commission’s own
Ours are LitAlerts market sales estimates of tracked adult-use retail, not licensee filings. They will not equal the Commission’s reported totals. With the official monthly totals, every figure could carry a stated coverage rate.
$62.8M market, but $128.2M in the equity figures
Two bases, each disclosed. Market structure (growth, concentration, prices) uses standardized category sales: $62.8M in October. Equity shares use total dispensary retail revenue: $128.2M. Shares are ratios within one basis, so they never mix the two.
Our equity shares and the Office’s counts
We cover retail dispensaries only, and designations as published in State records. The Office counts across all license types, so its shares will be broader.
308 dispensaries, 324 retailers, 282 matched
308 stores sold in October. 324 retailers are on file in the designation registry, and not every one of them sold in October. 282 of the 308 matched a State record by name, covering 97.43% of dispensary revenue. The licensee list with IDs would close the gap.
September looks slightly different now
The source feed keeps settling for a few weeks after a month closes. Brand-level figures hold; market totals can move by a fraction of a percent. Each edition is fixed at its pull date, so compare within one edition.
Beverages and Oral look out of line
Both have sat well above their usual level for several months, in a way that looks like a classification change in the source feed. Both are held out of every growth, new-entrant and concentration finding. Together they were 1.5% of October revenue.
The map shows stores, the access figure counts residents
The NJ Map places stores. The access figure (86.1% of residents within 5 miles) is a separate analysis that measures straight-line distance from every Census block to the nearest store with sales. See the Roadmap tab.
Concentration looks lower than ownership would suggest
HHI is measured on brand names. One parent company can sell under several brands, so parent-level concentration is higher. Concentration by parent company is on the roadmap.
Brand owners
The same data gives a minority-owned brand what a large operator gets from its own analysts: where it sells, where it does not, and what to do next. The dashboard’s Brand Report and Brand Intel tabs show this for any brand; a monthly Growth Intelligence report goes deeper for a single brand.
| Analysis | Decision it supports | What the brand sees |
|---|---|---|
| Brand against its own segment | Is a change ours, or the market’s? | The brand tracked against every brand in its segment, month by month |
| Store tiers, A to D | Which accounts to protect, grow and activate | Every door ranked, with the fastest growers flagged |
| Listings that stopped selling | What can go back on the menu this week | Lapsed listings, with the monthly sales to win back |
| Top-100 store white space | Where the next sales call goes | The state’s largest stores that do not yet carry the brand |
| Product velocity | Which products to place in more doors | Top sellers ranked by units per store per week |
| 30-day growth plan | Who does what this month, in priority order | Ranked actions, each with an owner and a timeline |
Why it matters to the Office
Retail equity depends on what is on the shelf. A brand that can see where it is losing doors can act in weeks, and the Office can see the same pattern across many brands at once.
Services
Independent analysis of New Jersey’s adult-use market, delivered as a monthly brief, a live dashboard and studies on request.
Monthly market health
- Growth split into price and volume
- Concentration and new entrants by category
- Price trends and revenue per storefront
- A CRC / Regulator view of every measure
Equity intelligence
- A sourced registry of Social Equity and diversely owned dispensaries, refreshed quarterly
- Door share against revenue share, every month
- Early warning when equity operators come under strain
Market structure
- Concentration by brand and by parent company
- What a new license does to sales at nearby stores
- Brand survival and market openness
Access and local policy
- Resident access to dispensaries, by town
- Municipal opt-outs and zoning set against access and sales
- Estimated local cannabis tax base by town
Studies and briefings
- Social Equity Excise Fee and policy scenarios
- Legislative and testimony briefs
- Quarterly briefings with Commission staff
How the work is held
- No hand-entered figures; every number traces to a query or a cited record
- Automated checks re-derive key figures before release
- Aggregated outputs; small cells suppressed
What’s live, and what’s next
What the Commission has today, what is ready to show, and what we could build next together.
Live today
Monthly brief and live dashboardThe October edition is out.
Equity registry162 designated dispensaries, each cited to a State record.
Equity conversionDoor share against revenue share for every designation.
Brand owner viewsReach, pricing and open doors for any brand.
Competition and pricesConcentration, new entrants and price trends in every category.
Ready to show
Access to dispensaries, by town86.1% of residents live within 5 straight-line miles of a dispensary with sales; the median resident is 1.71 miles away. The towns with the lowest access are identified.
Dispensary sales by host townA base for local-policy questions, from the same estimates as the brief.
A quarterly briefing formatThe quarter’s findings, cut to the Office’s questions.
Next, with your input
Exact equity matchingMatch every designation by license ID.needs: licensee list with IDs
A coverage check on every figureOur estimates beside the Commission’s totals.needs: official monthly totals
Equity trend, month by monthOne fixed basis, so editions compare cleanly.
Early signals for stores under strainFalling sales per store and shrinking menus, flagged early.
Local policy and accessWhich towns allow retail, and how that shapes access.needs: municipal records
What would help most from the Commission
- The licensee list with license IDs and designations. It makes equity matching exact and keeps it current.
- Official monthly sales totals. Every figure could then carry a coverage rate.
- How the quarterly benchmark report is built today. With its measures and definitions, ours can line up with it and strengthen it.
- A market sales data license with API access, in the Commission’s name, with Predictive Pace named as its authorized analyst. The Commission then owns its data feed directly, and every analysis runs on it.